Bitcoin — the institutional daily brief

Bitcoin traded a $66,100–$67,800 range over the past 24 hours on $284M of aggregated net spot buying across the largest venues. The Asian session dominated print activity at 41% of turnover, against 33% in European hours and 26% in US trading. Bid-ask imbalance at the 2% depth tier remains skewed to the buyer side; no aggressive OTC-desk distribution has been recorded.

Spot ETFs are printing a fourth consecutive day of positive net inflow at $312M — led by IBIT (BlackRock, +$184M) and FBTC (Fidelity, +$71M). GBTC outflow has slowed to $9M, the lowest reading since November 2025. Aggregate spot-ETF holdings now exceed 1.04M BTC, equivalent to 5.3% of circulating supply. The accumulation pace remains below the January peaks but is steady and predictable — a marker of durable institutional bid.

Realized cap rose 1.8% over the week, outpacing price — the textbook signature of an early accumulation phase. MVRV sits at 2.4, mid-range for a typical bull regime; cycle peaks usually print above 3.7. Coin Days Destroyed remain subdued, indicating long-term holders have not begun to take profit. Wallet-bucket accumulation in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range accelerated to +14,100 BTC over the trailing week.

BTC's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq has compressed to 0.18, against 0.62 in March, signaling a decoupling from traditional risk-on assets. The correlation with gold, by contrast, has lifted to 0.34. The DXY trades near 102.4 and US10Y yield holds around 4.21% — the macro backdrop for risk assets is broadly neutral. The May 7 FOMC remains the marquee driver into next week; rate-cut probability is currently priced at 28%.

Within the trading session we are tracking the $68,200 area, where short-stop liquidity has built up above the most recent local high. Below, $65,800 is the structural support; a confirmed break would compress aggregated long-OI on derivatives by an estimated 18%. Base case: continued sideways consolidation with an upward drift into Thursday's US macro print. Repositioning is recommended only on a confirmed breakout above or below the established range.